Author Topic: Training  (Read 9036 times)

WinterIsComing

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Re: Training
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2014, 10:38:11 pm »
I checked it some time ago, same oportunity to get 0 or 5 talent.

Okay, but that's the case in Palmeiras' example as well, but in his example 0 and 5 have lower chance than the in-between talents.  ::)

Is my interpretation right, that you are saying you have the same opportunity to get 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 talent, which would mean approx. 16.67% of all riders have talent 5?

oscacom

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Re: Training
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2014, 11:11:21 pm »
Yes

WinterIsComing

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Re: Training
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2014, 11:28:44 pm »

RealityCyclists

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Re: Training
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2014, 05:40:05 pm »
I checked it some time ago, same oportunity to get 0 or 5 talent.

We knew it is the same opportunity to get talent 0 or 5. But is there a difference in chances of getting a talent 5 rider and a talent 3 rider?
If I'm not wrong it was a 10% chance to get a talent 0 rider, 20% to get a talent 1, 20% talent 2, 20% talent 3, 20% talent 4 and 10% to get a talent 5 rider.

Is this all equal or is it as described above?

oscacom

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Re: Training
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2014, 06:05:19 pm »
The same 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5

levsim

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Re: Training
« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2015, 10:31:52 am »
I know there used to be discusion on this forum how to calcuulate a talent of rider, but somehow it.seems I just can not find it. I also tride a tool but unfortunately I don't speak spanish. Can smeone plz. explain how do I calculate talent


Begin counting after a pop. Than count the number trainings till the next pop. Only skills between 60 and 80. Dont rest with the rider. (calculating the talent is best to start at the beginning of a season, health is 100%)

Talent 5 pops for the first time:
after 6 or 7 trainings
2x na 13 of 14 (na is dutch for after, of means or)
3x na 20
4x na 26 of 27
5x na 33

Talent 4:
1x na 6 of 7 trainingen
2x na 13 of 14
3x na 20 of 21
4x na 27 of 28
5x na 34

Talent 3:
1x na 7 of 8 trainingen
2x na 14 of 15
3x na 21 of 22
4x na 28 of 29
5x na 36

Talent 2:
1x na 7 of 8 trainingen
2x na 15 of 16
3x na 22 of 23
4x na 30 of 31
5x na 37
 
Talent 1:
1x na 7 of 8 trainingen
2x na 15 of 16
3x na 23 of 24
4x na 31 of 32
5x na 39


Aurora_Australis

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Re: Training
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2015, 01:08:34 pm »
This was the pop table which was incorrect.  You can tell instantly by looking at the talent 2 pops.  It lists the first pop at 7-8, yet the 5th pop is supposed to be 6-7 from the 4th pop.
Also at talent 2, the increase per session is 0.10 + 9% (= 0.109) + 0.02 (under 23) = 0.129
0.129 X 37 = 4.773

However 5 / 0.129 = 38.76
So the correct number of trainings at 5th pop should be 38-39

(ps: you could also see that the talent 5 pops values are odd [3rd pop & 5th pop being whole numbers - which doesn't work])

levsim

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Re: Training
« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2015, 04:34:56 pm »
OK, I didn't really checked. :) Was searching for this info, found it and linked here. Could you correct the mistakes, so I will delete the wrong version from above? Or is there a correct version somewhere that can be quoted here?

Aurora_Australis

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Re: Training
« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2015, 10:25:17 pm »
OK, I didn't really checked. :) Was searching for this info, found it and linked here. Could you correct the mistakes, so I will delete the wrong version from above? Or is there a correct version somewhere that can be quoted here?
The only correct version that I know of, is the one I did in excel.

It'll need a free hosting site for it, then others can download it.

TeamSolex

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Re: Training
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2015, 12:28:34 am »
www.2shared.com

works fine for me

Dirk

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Re: Training
« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2015, 10:34:30 am »
I have a method which is a-bit different, just looking at patterns:
It is so easy and brilliant that I almost don't want to share it  ;)

For skill 60-80 , and u23
Talent 5:  ( 7 7 6 7 7 6 )
Talent 4 : ( 8 ; 7 x 19 ; 8 ; 7 x 19 )
Talent 3:  ( 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 )
Talent 2:  ( 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 )
Talent 1:  ( 9 ; 8 x 14 ; 9 ; 8 x 14 )
Talent 0:  ( 9 8 8 9 8 8  )

PS when you start looking you can by anywhere in the cycle.
I have also been working on the original method, and tried to correct it, please let me know if there are any mistakes in this one:

Begin counting after a pop. Than count the number trainings till the next pop. Only skills between 60 and 80. Dont rest with the rider. (calculating the talent is best to start at the beginning or a season, health is 100%)

Talent 5 pops for the first time: ( 7 7 6 7 7 6 )
after 6 or 7 trainings ( 66 % chance it will take 7 trainings )
2x after 13 or 14
3x after 20
4x after 26 or 27
5x after 33 or 34

Talent 4: ( 8 ; 7 x 19 ; 8 ; 7 x 19 )
1x after 7 or 8 trainings ( 4.2 % chance it will take 8 trainings )
2x after 14 or 15
3x after 21 or 22
4x after 28 or 29
5x after 35 or 36 ( 21% for it to take 36 trainings )

Talent 3: ( 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 )
1x after 7 or 8 trainings ( 40.7 % chance it will take 8 trainings )
2x after 14 or 15
3x after 22 or 23
4x after 29 or 30
5x after 37 or 38 ( 3.9 % chance it will pop on 38 )

Talent 2: ( 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 )
1x after 7 or 8 trainings
2x after 15 or 16
3x after 23 or 24
4x after 31 or 32 ( 0.8 % chance that it will pop at 32 )
5x after 38 or 39
 
Talent 1: ( 9 ; 8 x 14 ; 9 ; 8 x 14 )
1x after 8 or 9 trainings ( 6.6% chance it will take 9 trainings )
2x after 16 or 17
3x after 24 or 25 ( 20 % chance for it to take 25 trainings )
4x after 32 or 33
5x after 40 or 41 ( 32 % for it to take 41 trainings )

Talent 0: ( 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 )
1x after 8 or 9 trainings ( 33 % chance it will take 9 trainings )
2x after 16 or 17
3x after 25
4x after 33 or 34
5x after 41 or 42 ( 33 % chance for it to take 41 trainings )

TeamSolex

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Re: Training
« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2015, 02:52:52 pm »
Yes this is also what I use.
Almost fool proof.

IMPORTANT:
This is only for U23 riders training 60-80

I think you can be "unlucky" with some decimals sometimes. Which can make a rider pop not according to plan!
But it doesn't break the cycles other than that particular pop.

Maybe Dirk can confirm that I'm wrong. I could easily make a mistake. Monitoring rider pops is not my specialty  ;D

Dirk

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Re: Training
« Reply #27 on: May 13, 2015, 03:57:21 pm »
Yes, I think you can be "unlucky" with some pop not fitting the patern exactly.
Because
Talent 5: 7 7 6 = 3.00 Points ( So this pattern will not break )
Talent 4: 8 ; 7 x 19 = many 7 pops  ( You can now it is talent 4 if there is 3 or more 7 pops in a row )
Talent 3: 8 7 8 7 7 = 4.995 points ( so you can be "unlucky" (4% chance) with a 8 7 8 7 8 cycle )
Talent 2: 8 8 8 7 = 3.999 points ( ( so you can be "unlucky" (0.8% chance) with a 8 8 8 8 7 cycle )
Talent 1: 9 ; 8 x 14 = many 8 pops ( If there are 4 or more 8 pops followed by a 9 ( or another 8 ) pop then its talent 1 )
Talent 0: 9 8 8 = 3.00 points ( So this pattern will not break )
« Last Edit: May 13, 2015, 04:12:28 pm by Dirk »

TeamSolex

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Re: Training
« Reply #28 on: May 13, 2015, 04:19:52 pm »
hmm with these odds i bet the mistakes is made by me  ;D

iwestra

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Re: Training
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2015, 12:33:27 am »
It should also be noted that you get your U23 training even when you rest.  I have had an U23 rider pop while resting.  This may be the reason for some of your "unlucky" pops.