I have a method which is a-bit different, just looking at patterns:

It is so easy and brilliant that I almost don't want to share it

For skill 60-80 , and u23

Talent 5: (

**7 7 6** 7 7 6 )

Talent 4 : (

**8 ; 7 x 19** ; 8 ; 7 x 19 )

Talent 3: (

**8 7 8 7 7** 8 7 8 7 7 )

Talent 2: (

**8 8 8 7** 8 8 8 7 )

Talent 1: (

**9 ; 8 x 14** ; 9 ; 8 x 14 )

Talent 0: (

**9 8 8** 9 8 8 )

PS when you start looking you can by anywhere in the cycle.

I have also been working on the original method, and tried to correct it, please let me know if there are any mistakes in this one:

Begin counting after a pop. Than count the number trainings till the next pop. Only skills between 60 and 80. Dont rest with the rider. (calculating the talent is best to start at the beginning or a season, health is 100%)

Talent 5 pops for the first time: ( 7 7 6 7 7 6 )

after 6 or 7 trainings ( 66 % chance it will take 7 trainings )

2x after 13 or 14

3x after 20

4x after 26 or 27

5x after 33 or 34

Talent 4: ( 8 ; 7 x 19 ; 8 ; 7 x 19 )

1x after 7 or 8 trainings ( 4.2 % chance it will take 8 trainings )

2x after 14 or 15

3x after 21 or 22

4x after 28 or 29

5x after 35 or 36 ( 21% for it to take 36 trainings )

Talent 3: ( 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 )

1x after 7 or 8 trainings ( 40.7 % chance it will take 8 trainings )

2x after 14 or 15

3x after 22 or 23

4x after 29 or 30

5x after 37 or 38 ( 3.9 % chance it will pop on 38 )

Talent 2: ( 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 )

1x after 7 or 8 trainings

2x after 15 or 16

3x after 23 or 24

4x after 31 or 32 ( 0.8 % chance that it will pop at 32 )

5x after 38 or 39

Talent 1: ( 9 ; 8 x 14 ; 9 ; 8 x 14 )

1x after 8 or 9 trainings ( 6.6% chance it will take 9 trainings )

2x after 16 or 17

3x after 24 or 25 ( 20 % chance for it to take 25 trainings )

4x after 32 or 33

5x after 40 or 41 ( 32 % for it to take 41 trainings )

Talent 0: ( 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 )

1x after 8 or 9 trainings ( 33 % chance it will take 9 trainings )

2x after 16 or 17

3x after 25

4x after 33 or 34

5x after 41 or 42 ( 33 % chance for it to take 41 trainings )